War games are commonly used by the military to evaluate strategies, explore scenarios and reveal unexpected weaknesses. American ships and aircraft have just begun two weeks of war games in the Gulf, prompting protests from Iran, and last week South Korea carried out an annual computerised war-game exercise.

   Might war games deserve a greater role in business? Military analogies abound in the corporate world. Plenty of bosses look to Sun Tzu, an ancient Chinese general, for management tips. And in business, as in war, outcomes depend on what others do, as well as one's own actions. Yet many firms fail to think systematically about how rivals will react to their plans—and traditional planning does a poor job of taking competitors' responses into account, says John McDermott, head of strategy at Xerox, an office-equipment company. Corporate war games, which simulate the interactions of multiple actors in a market, provide a better way to do so.

   Such games have two chief characteristics. First, players break into teams and take on the roles of fierce competitors (and sometimes other citizens, such as customers). Second, the games involve several turns, allowing competitors not just to draw up their own strategies but to respond to the choices of others. Their popularity is rising. Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), a consultancy, is running 100 war games a year, up from around 50 three years ago. Open Options, a Canadian strategy consultancy, has been going since 1996 and its revenue doubled last year.

   BAH introduces a quantitative element into its games, calculating the effect of each team's strategy on their company's profits and stockmarket value at the end of each turn. Open Options takes a further step. To help Xerox understand the market dynamics of the print and copy industry, it ran a one-day workshop in which teams from Xerox took the roles of the big companies in the market, itself included. Each team identified the things “their” company could do to change its strategy and drew up a list of its desired outcomes; these “preference trees” were shared with the other teams. The results were then pumped into Open Options' proprietary software tools, which played out interactions between the companies and produced a range of possible outcomes.

   Mr McDermott says the game's predictive power was astonishing: one forecast, that a company would start to acquire a certain group of assets within the industry, came true within six months. By shedding light on areas where companies have different priorities, the concept of preference trees helps to highlight potential trade-offs, as well as competition. Open Options charges North American clients roughly $100,000 for an engagement.

   The secret of successful war-gaming does not simply lie in mathematics, however. Interaction, not algebra, is the best way to win support for a new strategy. Game-players must be senior for the same reason—although having the top boss on a team can stifle feedback. Strategies also have to capture competitors' hard-to-quantify corporate cultures: when designing a game, BAH seeks out employees at its clients who have actually worked at competitors for that reason. But perhaps war games' greatest value lies in the way they encourage managers to think differently about the consequences of their actions. “To know your enemy, you must become your enemy,” as Sun Tzu would say.

   注（1）：本文選自Economist, 05/31/2007

   注（2）：本文習(xí)題命題模仿對(duì)象：第1題模仿2002年真題Text 2第2題和Text 5第3題，第3題模仿1995年真題Text 2第4題，第4題模仿2000年真題Text 4第3題，第5題模仿1998年真題Text 2第4題。

   1． The expression “abound in” (Line 1, Paragraph 2) most probably means _______.

    [A] be limited

    [B] be appreciated

    [C] be driven

    [D] be plentiful

   2． According to the text, traditional corporate planning _______.

    [A] has been completely abandoned.

    [B] fails to consider rivals’ reactions.

    [C] includes the detailed analyses of strategies of all rival companies.

    [D] functions well for the development of most companies.

   3． The positive effect of war games owes to the following EXCEPT_______.

    [A] the role playing of competitors

    [B] the composition of several turns

    [C] the introduction of quantitative factors

    [D] the rising popularity of the game

   4． Which of the following is TRUE according to the text?

    [A] Both BAH and Open Options developed their own software tools for data analysis of war games.

    [B] The war game service expands slowly because of its high fee.

    [C] “Preference trees” refers to desired outcomes of the companies.

    [D] War game’s predictive ability is not convincing

   5． Which of the following is NOT a reason for the success of war games?

    [A] feedback

    [B] mathematics

    [C] interaction

    [D] consideration of enemy

   篇章剖析

    本文是一篇說(shuō)明文，圍繞實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)的商業(yè)用途及其價(jià)值這個(gè)話(huà)題進(jìn)行了分析。第一段先簡(jiǎn)單介紹了什么是實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)，第二段則立刻引入話(huà)題，指出公司制定戰(zhàn)略的傳統(tǒng)方式存在的缺點(diǎn)，從而提出本文的主要觀(guān)點(diǎn)，即公司實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)能夠幫助更好地理解自身與競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的狀況。第三段介紹了實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)的兩個(gè)特點(diǎn)；第四、五段介紹了兩家提供實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)服務(wù)的咨詢(xún)公司策劃的實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)內(nèi)容及其效果。最后一段對(duì)文章進(jìn)行了總結(jié)，進(jìn)一步指出了實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)的重要價(jià)值所在。

   詞匯注釋

   scenario [si`nB:ri[u] n. 情景；場(chǎng)面         quantitative [`kwRntitEtiv] adj.數(shù)量的, 定量的

   prompt [prRmpt] v. 激勵(lì)；刺激            identify [`aifdentifai] vt. 識(shí)別, 鑒別

   analogy [[`nAlEgi] n. 類(lèi)似, 類(lèi)推           pump [pQmp] v. ]把灌注; 傾注

   abound [[`baund] vi. 多, 富于, 充滿(mǎn)       proprietary [prR`praiEtEri] adj. 所有的

   stimulate [`stimjuleit] v. 刺激, 激勵(lì)         astonish [`EstRniF] v. 驚奇，驚訝

   multiple [`mQltipl] adj. 多樣的, 多重的       trade-off n. 交換, 協(xié)定, 交易

   consultancy [kEn`sQltnsi] n. 咨詢(xún); 顧問(wèn)公司  algebra [`AldVibrE] n. 代數(shù)學(xué)

   revenue [`revinju:] n. 收入                  stifle [`staifl] vt. 使窒息, 抑制

   難句突破

   Mr McDermott says the game's predictive power was astonishing: one forecast, that a company would start to acquire a certain group of assets within the industry, came true within six months.

   主體句式  Mr McDermott says…

   結(jié)構(gòu)分析  這個(gè)句子乍一看非常長(zhǎng)，但是其結(jié)構(gòu)卻相當(dāng)清楚。主要結(jié)構(gòu)為Mr McDermott says the game's predictive power was astonishing，后面冒號(hào)的作用是舉例進(jìn)一步說(shuō)明前面提到的結(jié)論。冒號(hào)后面句子的主體句式為one forecast came true within six months，而that 引導(dǎo)的這個(gè)句子是one forecast的具體內(nèi)容，是一個(gè)同位語(yǔ)從句。

   句子譯文  麥克德莫特先生說(shuō)這種演習(xí)的預(yù)測(cè)能力是驚人的：其中的一個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)是，一家公司將開(kāi)始在該產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)得到一組資產(chǎn)，而這在六個(gè)月之后竟然真的實(shí)現(xiàn)了。

   題目分析

   1．D. 語(yǔ)義題。根據(jù)上下文，討論了實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)是否能夠用于商界，并談到許多老板都在向中國(guó)古代的著名軍事家孫武學(xué)習(xí)管理技巧。顯然，商業(yè)人士已經(jīng)在運(yùn)用很多軍事上的理論。四個(gè)選項(xiàng)中，只有D最符合文意。

   2．B. 細(xì)節(jié)題。文章第二段中，正如辦公用品公司施樂(lè)公司的首席戰(zhàn)略官約翰·麥克德莫特指出，“傳統(tǒng)的計(jì)劃方式很少把競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者的反應(yīng)考慮在內(nèi)”，顯然答案是B。

   3．D. 細(xì)節(jié)題。從第三段和第四段中，我們可以找到實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)之所以能夠產(chǎn)生積極效果，是因?yàn)檫@種演習(xí)擁有兩個(gè)重要的特點(diǎn)，同時(shí)還加入了“quantitative element”。而D選項(xiàng)并不是實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)積極效果的原因，而是結(jié)果。

   4．C. 細(xì)節(jié)題。根據(jù)文章第三段第六行，各個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)列出所扮演公司“希望達(dá)到的一系列成果”，后面緊跟著的“preference tree”即為上文“desired outcomes”的同義詞。

   5．A. 細(xì)節(jié)題。文章最后一段總結(jié)說(shuō)明了實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)模式之所以能夠成功的原因，列舉了三點(diǎn)，分別屬于B、C、D，而A選項(xiàng)與題意沒(méi)有任何關(guān)系。

   參考譯文

    軍隊(duì)經(jīng)常會(huì)利用實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)來(lái)評(píng)估戰(zhàn)略、探索各種情景，以發(fā)現(xiàn)一些無(wú)法預(yù)料到的問(wèn)題。美國(guó)的軍艦和戰(zhàn)機(jī)已經(jīng)在海灣地區(qū)開(kāi)始了為期兩周的演習(xí)，此舉引發(fā)了伊朗的抗議，上周韓國(guó)也啟動(dòng)了其年度計(jì)算化實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)。

    實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)是否能夠在商業(yè)中占有一席之地呢？許多軍事理論早已經(jīng)廣泛運(yùn)用到了商業(yè)界，許多老板都在向中國(guó)古代的著名軍事家孫武學(xué)習(xí)管理技巧。商場(chǎng)如戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)，其結(jié)果取決于別人和自己分別采取了什么行動(dòng)。但是，正如辦公用品公司施樂(lè)公司的首席戰(zhàn)略官約翰·麥克德莫特指出的那樣，許多公司沒(méi)有系統(tǒng)地去思考對(duì)手會(huì)針對(duì)他們的計(jì)劃采取什么措施—傳統(tǒng)的計(jì)劃方式很少把競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者的反應(yīng)考慮在內(nèi)。公司實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)能夠促使參與者在市場(chǎng)中充分互動(dòng)，從而更好地解決上述問(wèn)題。

    這種演習(xí)有兩個(gè)特點(diǎn)。首先，參與者原先所在的團(tuán)隊(duì)會(huì)被拆散，彼此成為激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手（有時(shí)候扮演普通市民，諸如顧客之類(lèi)的角色）。其次，演習(xí)包括了好幾輪，從而使競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者們不僅能夠策劃自己的戰(zhàn)略，而且也能夠?qū)ζ渌�人的選擇做出反應(yīng)。這種演習(xí)正在不斷普及。Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) 是一家咨詢(xún)公司，該公司在3年前每年舉辦50場(chǎng)實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)，而到現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)增加到了100場(chǎng)。Open Option是一家加拿大戰(zhàn)略咨詢(xún)公司，該公司自1996年開(kāi)始舉辦實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)，到去年為止其收入已實(shí)現(xiàn)翻倍。

    BAH把一些定量的元素加入到了演習(xí)中，即在每一輪結(jié)束的時(shí)候計(jì)算每個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)的戰(zhàn)略對(duì)于公司利潤(rùn)以及股票價(jià)值的貢獻(xiàn)度。Open Options則采取了更進(jìn)一步的措施。為了幫助施樂(lè)公司更好地理解打印和復(fù)印工業(yè)的市場(chǎng)活力，Open Options為其制訂了一個(gè)為期一天的活動(dòng)，活動(dòng)中不同團(tuán)隊(duì)扮演市場(chǎng)中的各大公司，當(dāng)然也包括施樂(lè)公司自己。每個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)都為“自己的”公司制定了一系列的措施來(lái)改變公司戰(zhàn)略，并列出了他們希望達(dá)到的一系列成果；這些“偏好表”可以在各個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)之間分享。Open Options接著把結(jié)果都輸入到其擁有知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)的一套軟件工具中，從而能夠模擬各個(gè)公司的互動(dòng)，并產(chǎn)出一系列的可能結(jié)果。

    麥克德莫特先生說(shuō)這種演習(xí)的預(yù)測(cè)能力是驚人的：其中的一個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)是，一家公司將開(kāi)始在該產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)得到一組資產(chǎn)，六個(gè)月后這事竟然真的實(shí)現(xiàn)了。通過(guò)弄清楚各家公司的重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域，偏好表這一概念能夠幫助人們關(guān)注可能的交易和競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。Open Options為其每一個(gè)北美的客戶(hù)設(shè)計(jì)一次演習(xí)都要收取高達(dá)10萬(wàn)美元的費(fèi)用。

    但是實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)的成功秘訣不僅僅在于運(yùn)用了數(shù)學(xué)知識(shí)。互動(dòng)，而不是代數(shù)，才是贏(yíng)得對(duì)新戰(zhàn)略支持的最好辦法。因?yàn)橄嗤�的原因，所有的演�?xí)參與者都必須是公司的高級(jí)經(jīng)理—盡管在一個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)中有一個(gè)最高領(lǐng)導(dǎo)會(huì)影響得到更好的反饋。所有的戰(zhàn)略也必須抓住競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者最難定義的公司文化：為此，當(dāng)設(shè)計(jì)一個(gè)演習(xí)的時(shí)候，BAH經(jīng)常會(huì)找出客戶(hù)公司中那些曾經(jīng)為對(duì)手公司工作過(guò)的雇員。但是實(shí)戰(zhàn)演習(xí)的最大價(jià)值有可能在于演習(xí)能夠鼓勵(lì)經(jīng)理們從不同的角度來(lái)思考他們的行動(dòng)可能產(chǎn)生的結(jié)果。正如孫武所說(shuō)的那樣，“如果你想了解你的敵人，那么你就必須成為你的敵人”。